Tag Archives: Economic Stimulus

Surowiecki’s Fallacy

Surowiecki wants to score points against libertarian political economy by pointing out that the stock market is currently recommending one thing (Keynsian surge) while libertarian economists like Arnold Kling are plugging for another (market correction).  In his post, he says we ought to read the stock market’s prices–and by this he means the collective wisdom embodied by stock prices–as an endorsement of Obama’s stimulus package.  When Obama hints at the future glory, the financial markets seem  to maintain their altitude. Thus he concludes, 

…it isn’t just some group of pointy-headed Keynesians saying that a big stimulus package will be good for the economy: the collective wisdom of the market is saying the same thing.

But what is Surowieki’s evidence?  He says the stock market tanked when the vestiges of fiscal conservatism made a show by rejecting TARP the first time around. He also adds that the market didn’t show signs of life until Obama introduced his economic think-tank and unveiled his Keynsian buffet menu. And as an aside, Surowiecki mentions that the S&P is up 25 percent since Nov. 20th. It is telling that he doesn’t say it’s down over 35 percent in the last year, despite the gains since its low point in November. (In other words, Surowiecki’s theory of collective wisdom places greater emphasis on cherry-picked short term valuations over those evident in longer time frames. He gives no explanation as to why.) 

The Surowiecki nut: Post hoc ergo propter hoc, baby. 

But how he believes his first data point–the stock market’s decline coincident with a rejection of Paulson’s plan–is evidence of market support for Obama’s economic foreplay is beyond me.  Afterall, it’s safe to say a consensus has emerged on the effects of Paulson’s plan: in a word, it sucked. Besides, that should be a data point in support of the wisdom of Paulson’s plan, not for that of Keynsian wisdom.  We’re talking about two different rent-seeking glory holes here. 

As for the markets’ (short term) reactions to Obama’s stimulus, I return to an old piece of false tribal wisdom–namely, that what’s good for GM is good for the country.  The patent falsehood of this statement is so obvious to me that it amazes me it passed the laugh test. Imagine this.  For no intelligible reason, the government decides to give hundreds of billions to GM as a gift. Obviously, this is good for GM. We shouldn’t be surprised if GM’s stock increased accordingly. But how foolish would it be to conclude that this rise in the stock price evinced the relative merits of taxing the many to support the already well-off few? Would this increase demonstrate the wisdom behind so profligate a gift? 

The point is that the stock price of many unproductive companies ought to go down.  These companies ought to fail and in time, the fortunes of their more productive replacements will rise. Surowiecki says nothing about how stock prices track the creative destruction so fundamental to capitalism.  Instead, he falls for the false tribal wisdom. Subsidies offered through a stimulus package may maintain the status quo, but only a daft journalist would think the interests of those reigning in the status quo aligns with the interests of the commonweal.


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Larry Says Government to Spend Trillions Wisely

Summers outlines Obama’s stimulus plan in very broad strokes. One gobbit caught my eye: 

Some argue that instead of attempting to both create jobs and invest in our long-run growth, we should focus exclusively on short-term policies that generate consumer spending. But that approach led to some of the challenges we face today — and it is that approach that we must reject if we are going to strengthen our middle class and our economy over the long run.

If by short-term policies, he means lowering interest rates to an all time low and stoking inflation, then that’s one thing.  Strangely, part of the set of policies that created this mess may also help to solve it, as some have argued. But what I think Larry is really saying, is that the Obama spending spree will work because the government will spend your money more wisely than you will. Larry emphasizes transparency, but he’s not being honest. He should just come out and say people are stupid and tend to spend their money foolishly. Remember the statist boner for Keynesian multipliers is really a post hoc rationalization for the moral judgement that you’re stupid.

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